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The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® dipped in June to 100.4 (1985=100), down from 101.3 in May. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions—increased to 141.5 (1985=100) from 140.8 last month.

However, the Expectations Index—based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—fell to 73.0 (1985=100) in June, down from 74.9 in May. The Expectations Index has been below 80 (the threshold which usually signals a recession ahead) for five consecutive months.

"Confidence pulled back in June but remained within the same narrow range that's held throughout the past two years, as strength in current labor market views continued to outweigh concerns about the future. However, if material weaknesses in the labor market appear, Confidence could weaken as the year progresses," said Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board.

"Consumers expressed mixed feelings this month: their view of the present situation improved slightly overall, driven by an uptick in sentiment about the current labor market, but their assessment of current business conditions cooled. Meanwhile, for the second month in a row, consumers were a bit less pessimistic about future labor market conditions. However, their expectations for both future income and business conditions weakened, weighing down the overall Expectations Index. The decline in confidence between May and June was centered on consumers aged 35-54. By contrast, those under 35 and those 55 and older saw confidence improve this month. No clear pattern emerged in terms of income groups. On a six-month moving average basis, confidence continued to be highest among the youngest (under 35) and wealthiest (making over $100K) consumers."

Peterson added: "Compared to May, consumers were less concerned about a forthcoming recession. However, consumers' assessment of their Family's Financial Situation—­­both currently and over the next six months—was less positive." (These measures are not included in calculating the Consumer Confidence Index®)

Average 12-month inflation expectations ticked down slightly from 5.4 percent to 5.3 percent. June's write-in responses revealed that elevated prices, especially for food and groceries, continued to impact consumers' views of the economy, followed by the labor market and US political situation. Notably, the share of respondents believing the 2024 election would impact the economy was low in comparison to write-ins in June of 2016 and slightly higher than in 2020.

Consumers were positive about the stock market, with 48.4 percent expecting stock prices to increase over the year ahead, compared to 23.5 percent expecting a decrease and 28.1 percent expecting no change. Meanwhile, ­the share of consumers expecting higher interest rates over the next twelve months dropped to 52.6 percent, its lowest level since February.

On a six-month moving average basis, purchasing plans for homes were largely unchanged and remained historically low in June. Buying plans for cars also stalled. Meanwhile, buying plans for most big-ticket appliances and smartphones increased slightly, though fewer consumers planned to buy a laptop or a PC.

The share of consumers planning a vacation^† over the next six months continued to increase and remains above last June's level. More consumers planned to vacation in the US than abroad. As in recent years, more people plan to travel by car than by plane. Overall, the share of consumers planning to go on vacation is still about 10 percentage points lower than pre-pandemic.

Present Situation
Consumers' assessment of current business conditions was, on balance, slightly less positive in June.

• 19.6% of consumers said business conditions were "good," down from 20.8% in May.

• But 17.7% said business conditions were "bad," also down from 18.4% last month.

Consumers' appraisal of the labor market improved in June.

• 38.1% of consumers said jobs were "plentiful," up from 37.0% in May.

• 14.1% of consumers said jobs were "hard to get," down from 14.3%.

Expectations Six Months Hence     
Consumers were less optimistic about the short-term business conditions outlook in June.

• 12.5% of consumers expected business conditions to improve, down from 13.7% in May.

• 16.7% expected business conditions to worsen, down from 16.9%.

Consumers' assessment of the short-term labor market outlook was a tad less negative in June.

• 12.6% of consumers expected more jobs to be available, down from 13.1% in May.

• 17.3% anticipated fewer jobs, down from 18.8% last month.

Consumers' assessment of their short-term income prospects deteriorated in June.

• 15.2% of consumers expected their incomes to increase, down from 17.7% in May.

• 11.7% expected their incomes to decrease, up from 11.5%.

Assessment of Family Finances and Recession Risk

• Consumers' assessment of their Family's Current Financial Situation weakened in June.

• Consumers' assessment of their Family's Financial Situation going forward was virtually unchanged.

• Consumers' Perceived Likelihood of a US Recession over the Next 12 Months pulled back in June, after rising in both May and April.

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey®, based on an online sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Toluna, a technology company that delivers real-time consumer insights and market research through its innovative technology, expertise, and panel of over 36 million consumers. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was June 19.

^† NOTE: As part of our regular efforts to enhance the quality of our data, the seasonal adjustments procedure for the bi-monthly vacation intention responses has been upgraded. The data are now seasonally adjusted using an X-12 procedure, in line with the seasonal adjustments applied to other consumer confidence survey data.

Source: June 2024 Consumer Confidence Survey^®
The Conference Board

The Conference Board publishes the Consumer Confidence Index^® at 10 a.m. ET on the last Tuesday of every month. Subscription information and the technical notes to this series are available on The Conference Board website: https://www.conference-board.org/data/consumerdata.cfm.

Hurricane Beryl, currently battering the Windward Islands as the most intense hurricane to form in the Atlantic so early in the year, is validating meteorologists' worst fears about the 2024 season.

Why it matters: Beryl has shattered records for rapid intensification, overall strength and location at this time of year. It has achieved these feats because of unusually hot ocean waters, tied in part to climate change.

• To the numerous forecasting groups who predicted an extremely active hurricane season, Beryl provides an unfortunate validation — and an indication of more record-breaking storms to come.

Zoom in: Beryl has exhibited a record-shattering burst of rapid intensification unheard of for this region of the Atlantic during June.

• "Beryl rapidly intensified 65 mph in 24 hours between 2 PM ET Saturday and 2 PM ET Sunday, " said Michael Lowry, hurricane specialist and storm surge expert at WPLG Local 10 in Miami. He cited Hurricane Center data.
• "This is the fastest rate of strengthening ever observed in the satellite era (since 1966) for June."
• The trend toward more frequent and larger bouts of rapid intensification is one that studies link to human-caused global warming. Warmer seas, higher air temperatures and more moisture in the air helps fuel these storms.
• Beryl is the earliest Category 4 storm on record in the Atlantic, beating the previous record by more than a week. Reliable records stretch back 174 years.

Context: NOAA and numerous private sector and university research groups predicted an extremely active season, mainly due to the combination of record-hot Atlantic Ocean temperatures and a developing La Niña climate cycle in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

• The waters of the Caribbean, where Beryl is headed, are at their average temperature for early-to-mid-September.
• The record warm North Atlantic is part of a global spike in ocean temperatures that has gone on for more than a year and is in large part due to human-caused climate change.
• While 2023 was the planet's warmest year on record, so far, 2024 has been running even hotter.

The big picture: "This should be a massive wake-up call for anyone who hasn't yet bought into the concerns for the 2024 season," said Steve Bowen, chief science officer at Gallagher Re.

• "When we see ocean waters as warm in June as they typically should be in September, and then observe a storm use this proverbial rocket fuel to undergo a rate of rapid intensification that is much more common in September, it is following the basics of tropical meteorology and climate change science," he told Axios.
• "More heat, more moisture, more intense storms, more unusual storm behavior."
• Other experts told Axios that, in addition to all its unusual milestones, Hurricane Beryl once again demonstrates that small island states that have contributed the least to climate change are suffering from some of its worst consequences.

Between the lines: Scientists took to social media to express a mix of awe and dread as a hurricane this powerful formed so quickly in an area where storms don't typically form, let alone thrive, until September.

• "Beryl is rewriting the history books in all the wrong ways," National Hurricane Center meteorologist Eric Blake posted on X. "Very few will have experienced a hurricane this strong there."

Sea surface temperatures along Hurricane Beryl's track are running at record or near record levels for the week, with a deep reservoir of ocean fuel. Waters are as hot as they are typically are in late August and September, no doubt a big player in Beryl's record June intensity. pic.twitter.com/okqadNCipd

— Michael Lowry (@MichaelRLowry) June 30, 2024

• "It's hard to communicate how unbelievable this is," Brian McNoldy, a researcher at the University of Miami, wrote in his newsletter regarding Hurricane Beryl's milestones.

The bottom line: This is going to be a very long and busy Atlantic hurricane season, with additional devastating surprises like Hurricane Beryl.

• "Buckle up," Bowen said.

Zoom is still in, but workers are zoning out in meetings. They're increasingly staying on mute through the whole ordeal and turning the camera off, according to new research published in Harvard Business Review.

Why it matters: A lack of participation in virtual meetings could be a sign that a worker is on her way out, or that there didn't need to be a meeting at all.

Zoom in: Turning the camera off in a virtual meeting is correlated with employee attrition, per the research, from an analytics firm called Vyopta, which looked at data from 2023 and 2022 covering more than 40 million meetings at 11 large companies.

• Workers who wound up leaving their company within a year had their cameras on just 18.4% of the time in small group meetings; those who remained at the company longer were on camera 32.5% of the time.

The researchers also found:

• Participation in meetings has dropped. In 2023, the share of workers who stayed muted for the entirety of a meeting was 7.2%, up from 4.8% in 2022. Camera enablement rates fell slightly, too.
• Workers are doing a lot more meetings. In 2023, workers attended 10.1 virtual meetings a week, down slightly from 10.3 in 2022 — but higher than in 2021 when the number was 8.3 and more employees were working from home.

Our thought bubble: If the number of meetings is going up and participation is down that may be a sign that there are too many meetings and people are feeling Zoom fatigue.

The bottom line: Meetings have always left a lot to be desired, but before the Zoom times, it was hard to analyze how they worked and make targeted improvements.

• Now some large employers are starting to use data gleaned from virtual meetings to make improvements — with an eye toward employer productivity and retention.